A record Dow on negotiations neither government confirms, as oil sheds 5% and Palantir guides up

The market rallied on negotiations that neither government says exist. The S&P 500 rose 1.5% to 7,600.50, closing within reach of its June record, the Dow gained 693.38 points to a record 53,178.41, and the Nasdaq added 2.1% to 25,913.90, all on relief that Trump's called-off strike and his talk of an "imminent" deal with Iran meant cheaper oil and a smaller inflation problem. The catch arrived before lunch: US officials told CBS News that no new negotiations with Iran are planned, and Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said "we are not negotiating with the United States at this time." The rally priced a meeting that, as of tonight, has no venue, no delegations and no confirmation from either capital.

Sources: CBS News · Iranian Foreign Ministry

The diplomatic record of the day, kept separate from the tape it moved: Trump told reporters Sunday the deal is "imminent, having to do with the Hormuz Strait and also, ultimately, the denuclearization of Iran," with talks resuming Monday. Iran's acting defense minister Majid Ebn-e-Reza called the strike cancellation a retreat "within the context of psychological operations and a war of calculations," and rejected the claim that Iran requested it. Baghaei said the strait "will in no way return to the status it was before February 28th." The only channel both sides acknowledge is Iran's talks with Oman over a permitted, fee-based shipping route — which Baghaei said has nothing to do with reopening Hormuz.

Sources: Iranian Foreign Ministry · Iranian Defense Ministry

Oil did the day's heavy lifting. WTI fell about 5.4% to $80.09 and Brent 4.8% to $83.74, per Trading Economics' close prints, unwinding most of last week's war premium in one session. Two separate causes were published within hours of each other on Sunday: the called-off strike, and OPEC+ agreeing 188,000 bpd more for September — completing the unwind of the 2023 voluntary cuts, with further increases paused from the fourth quarter. Crude entered the day up more than 20% for July, so one Sunday of diplomacy and barrels took back roughly a quarter of the month's move.

Sources: Trading Economics · OPEC+

$PLTR made the after-hours case for the AI trade. Q2 revenue of $1.935B, up 93% year over year against a $1.81B FactSet consensus, US commercial revenue up 149% to $764M, and GAAP net income of $1.06B. Guidance went up, not down: Q3 revenue guided to $2.16B and the full year raised to about $8.15B, an 82% growth rate, with Karp citing a Rule of 40 score of 155%. The stock, which closed the regular session at $124.96, was up 10% after hours as of 4:36pm ET, per StreetInsider.

Sources: Palantir release · FactSet · StreetInsider

The morning and the close were two different markets. Late morning, Nasdaq-100 futures were up just 0.15% while Dow futures ran 1.3%, and most megacaps traded red. By the close the day had inverted: Alphabet up 5.3%, Amazon up 4.6% and back above $3 trillion in market value per 24/7 Wall St, Nvidia up 3.1%, Tesla up 3.4%, Meta up as much as 7%, and Apple, down 1.9%, the only decliner of the seven. Whatever the morning said about a rotation, the afternoon disagreed.

Sources: 24/7 Wall St

The hottest factory print in the cycle met falling yields and lost. ISM Manufacturing came in at 55.6 for July at 10:00am, against 54.0 consensus and 53.3 in June — landing on a Fed that held 9–3 last Wednesday with all three dissents preferring to raise. Market-implied odds of a September hike sat near 63% by the close, per Trading Economics. And yet the 10-year yield fell 6bp to 4.68%, with the 30-year at 5.23% after ending last week at 5.28%, its highest since 2006 — the oil collapse mattered more to the bond market than the ISM did.

Sources: ISM · Trading Economics

The Financial Times reported Sunday evening that AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb have held merger talks — a combination that would be valued near $400 billion, among the largest pharmaceutical groups ever assembled. The framing matters: that is combined market value, not a purchase price, and the FT cautioned the talks could stall or collapse, with no structure disclosed and neither company commenting. The market's verdict was skepticism: AstraZeneca slid 7% Monday per CNBC, with analysts described as "perplexed," while Bristol Myers closed near flat at $65.07.

Sources: Financial Times · CNBC

Goldman Sachs retitled its US Conviction List for a different market than the one that showed up. The August refresh, "Stocks for a broadening market" per analyst Gabriela Borges, added $MSFT, Applied Materials, Delta, O'Reilly, UPS and Viking, and removed Broadcom, ServiceNow, J&J and Dick's — Broadcom explicitly on expectations the AI frenzy cools in coming months, per TipRanks. Broadcom fell 2% on the day while everything around it rallied; Microsoft's add came with a projection of EPS growth accelerating from 12% in fiscal 2027 to more than 20% by 2029.

Sources: Goldman Sachs · TipRanks

Strategy sold bitcoin again — 1,638 coins at an average $63,957, about $104.7M, in the week ended August 2, per The Block, taking holdings to roughly 842,000 BTC. It is not a one-off: the company added just 37 BTC over two months before the sale, per BeInCrypto, and has been operating under the Digital Credit Capital Framework it adopted in late June, with proceeds funding STRC buybacks and dividends and a dollar reserve near $4B, per Invezz. The company that spent five years telling the market it would never sell now sells to service its capital structure. Bitcoin itself traded near $63,800, up 1.2%.

Sources: The Block · BeInCrypto · Invezz

Tomorrow is the week's density peak. Trade balance at 8:30am, JOLTS and factory orders at 10:00am. $CAT, Pfizer and Merck report pre-open, with Caterpillar's Zacks consensus at $6.25 EPS on $19.31B. After the close: $AMD, consensus $11.32B revenue and $1.61 EPS, and $SPCX — SpaceX's first quarter as a public company, results at 4:30pm ET per its own IR release, with roughly 911 million insider shares unlocking two trading days later. $OPEN also reports after the close, guided to ~$900M revenue with adjusted EBITDA near break-even against Q1's negative $31M — a margin test run at 6.6% mortgage rates.

Sources: Zacks · SpaceX IR

The fear gauges treated a cancelled airstrike as a resolved war. The VIX closed at 15.72, down 1.7% and back near its summer lows, gold eased 0.4% to $4,090 while holding most of its year's advance, and the dollar index sat near 100 after opening August at a seven-week low. Wednesday brings the other calendar risk the tape has not priced loudly: Treasury's quarterly refunding statement at 8:30am, where the 3-, 10- and 30-year auction sizes for next week get set, and ISM Services at 10:00am.

Sources: Trading Economics · US Treasury